Evaluation of major heat waves’ mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2017-09-04

AUTHORS

Ondřej Lhotka, Jan Kyselý, Eva Plavcová

ABSTRACT

The main aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the E-OBS gridded data set, based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970–2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net shortwave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land–atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. In some cases, the seemingly good reproduction of major heat waves’ magnitude is erroneously achieved through extremely favourable circulation conditions compensated by a substantial surplus of soil moisture or vice versa. These findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events. More... »

PAGES

4249-4262

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2017-01-07. Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties in THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
  • 2010-04-06. Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2013-07-23. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research in REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
  • 2015-07-23. Overly persistent circulation in climate models contributes to overestimated frequency and duration of heat waves and cold spells in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2012-11-08. Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2009-08-18. Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2010-05-16. Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2013-04-05. The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2012-01-10. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2015-01-20. Spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves over Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2014-04-20. Autopsy of two mega-heatwaves in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2013-05-08. Soil moisture-temperature feedbacks at meso-scale during summer heat waves over Western Europe in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2016-06-21. Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe in SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
  • 2007-03-20. Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2009-06-23. Resolution effects on regional climate model simulations of seasonal precipitation over Europe in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2011-07-29. RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 in CLIMATIC CHANGE
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