On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2013-03-23

AUTHORS

Jessica Vial, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Sandrine Bony

ABSTRACT

This study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates from eleven general circulation models participating in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and analyzes inter-model differences. This is done by taking into account the fact that the climate response to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) is not necessarily only mediated by surface temperature changes, but can also result from fast land warming and tropospheric adjustments to the CO2 radiative forcing. By considering tropospheric adjustments to CO2 as part of the forcing rather than as feedbacks, and by using the radiative kernels approach, we decompose climate sensitivity estimates in terms of feedbacks and adjustments associated with water vapor, temperature lapse rate, surface albedo and clouds. Cloud adjustment to CO2 is, with one exception, generally positive, and is associated with a reduced strength of the cloud feedback; the multi-model mean cloud feedback is about 33 % weaker. Non-cloud adjustments associated with temperature, water vapor and albedo seem, however, to be better understood as responses to land surface warming. Separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks. About 70 % of the spread stems from the cloud feedback, which remains the major source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, with a large contribution from the tropics. Differences in tropical cloud feedbacks between low-sensitivity and high-sensitivity models occur over a large range of dynamical regimes, but primarily arise from the regimes associated with a predominance of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. The combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback also contributes to the spread of climate sensitivity estimates, with inter-model differences arising primarily from the relative humidity responses throughout the troposphere. Finally, this study points to a substantial role of nonlinearities in the calculation of adjustments and feedbacks for the interpretation of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity estimates. We show that in climate model simulations with large forcing (e.g., 4 × CO2), nonlinearities cannot be assumed minor nor neglected. Having said that, most results presented here are consistent with a number of previous feedback studies, despite the very different nature of the methodologies and all the uncertainties associated with them. More... »

PAGES

3339-3362

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00382-013-1725-9

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1725-9

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1028387493


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201 schema:name Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 4 place Jussieu, 75752, Paris Cedex 05, France
202 Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), 4 place Jussieu, 75752, Paris Cedex 05, France
203 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




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