Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2012-01

AUTHORS

Bart van den Hurk, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Randal D. Koster, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Helio Camargo

ABSTRACT

The Second Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE2) is designed to explore the improvement of forecast skill of summertime temperature and precipitation up to 8 weeks ahead by using realistic soil moisture initialization. For the European continent, we show in this study that for temperature the skill does indeed increase up to 6 weeks, but areas with (statistically significant) lower skill also exist at longer lead times. The skill improvement is smaller than shown earlier for the US, partly because of a lower potential predictability of the European climate at seasonal time scales. Selection of extreme soil moisture conditions or a subset of models with similar initial soil moisture conditions does improve the forecast skill, and sporadic positive effects are also demonstrated for precipitation. Using realistic initial soil moisture data increases the interannual variability of temperature compared to the control simulations in the South-Central European area at longer lead times. This leads to better temperature forecasts in a remote area in Western Europe. However, the covered range of forecast dates (1986–1995) is too short to isolate a clear physical mechanism for this remote correlation. More... »

PAGES

349-362

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00382-010-0956-2

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0956-2

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015241299


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