Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2017-02-16

AUTHORS

David Court, Benjamin Gillen, Jordi McKenzie, Charles R. Plott

ABSTRACT

Field tests were conducted on two new information aggregation mechanism designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and when applied under conditions where incentives for accuracy are unavailable still performs well against data. More... »

PAGES

25-54

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083866721


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/14", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Economics", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1401", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Economic Theory", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1402", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Applied Economics", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1403", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Econometrics", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "AFTRS, Moore Park, NSW, Australia", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.466485.d", 
          "name": [
            "AFTRS, Moore Park, NSW, Australia"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Court", 
        "givenName": "David", 
        "id": "sg:person.012021517756.42", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012021517756.42"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.20861.3d", 
          "name": [
            "Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Gillen", 
        "givenName": "Benjamin", 
        "id": "sg:person.010740562413.08", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.010740562413.08"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1004.5", 
          "name": [
            "Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "McKenzie", 
        "givenName": "Jordi", 
        "id": "sg:person.013550144421.47", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.013550144421.47"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.20861.3d", 
          "name": [
            "Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Plott", 
        "givenName": "Charles R.", 
        "id": "sg:person.015156246113.99", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015156246113.99"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-015-0870-2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022171339", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-015-0870-2"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-002-0306-7", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007681004", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-002-0306-7"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "2017-02-16", 
    "datePublishedReg": "2017-02-16", 
    "description": "Field tests were conducted on two new information aggregation mechanism designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and when applied under conditions where incentives for accuracy are unavailable still performs well against data.", 
    "genre": "article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1", 
    "inLanguage": "en", 
    "isAccessibleForFree": true, 
    "isFundedItemOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:grant.3579204", 
        "type": "MonetaryGrant"
      }
    ], 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1136838", 
        "issn": [
          "0938-2259", 
          "1432-0479"
        ], 
        "name": "Economic Theory", 
        "publisher": "Springer Nature", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "1", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "65"
      }
    ], 
    "keywords": [
      "films", 
      "second mechanism", 
      "small films", 
      "aggregation mechanism", 
      "mechanism", 
      "probability distribution", 
      "distribution", 
      "principles", 
      "information", 
      "accuracy", 
      "movies", 
      "guess", 
      "conditions", 
      "data", 
      "design", 
      "amount", 
      "intuition", 
      "exception", 
      "field tests", 
      "test", 
      "box office revenues", 
      "office revenues", 
      "capacity", 
      "mechanism design", 
      "Australia", 
      "information aggregation mechanism", 
      "prophecy", 
      "revenue", 
      "actual revenue", 
      "incentives", 
      "new information aggregation mechanism designs", 
      "information aggregation mechanism designs", 
      "aggregation mechanism designs", 
      "weekend box office revenues", 
      "pari-mutuel mechanism", 
      "box office amounts", 
      "office amounts", 
      "Boxoffice Prophecy", 
      "Guess of Guesses"
    ], 
    "name": "Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses", 
    "pagination": "25-54", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1083866721"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083866721"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2021-12-01T19:38", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-springernature-scigraph/baseset/20211201/entities/gbq_results/article/article_719.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

142 TRIPLES      22 PREDICATES      68 URIs      56 LITERALS      6 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1 schema:about anzsrc-for:14
2 anzsrc-for:1401
3 anzsrc-for:1402
4 anzsrc-for:1403
5 schema:author N63045a4fcedb468989235521546e068c
6 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-002-0306-7
7 sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-015-0870-2
8 schema:datePublished 2017-02-16
9 schema:datePublishedReg 2017-02-16
10 schema:description Field tests were conducted on two new information aggregation mechanism designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and when applied under conditions where incentives for accuracy are unavailable still performs well against data.
11 schema:genre article
12 schema:inLanguage en
13 schema:isAccessibleForFree true
14 schema:isPartOf N6129ddf2cd0745638f5a88bb57c7b9fd
15 Na470f189babd49c695b5ac46d3ed8dd2
16 sg:journal.1136838
17 schema:keywords Australia
18 Boxoffice Prophecy
19 Guess of Guesses
20 accuracy
21 actual revenue
22 aggregation mechanism
23 aggregation mechanism designs
24 amount
25 box office amounts
26 box office revenues
27 capacity
28 conditions
29 data
30 design
31 distribution
32 exception
33 field tests
34 films
35 guess
36 incentives
37 information
38 information aggregation mechanism
39 information aggregation mechanism designs
40 intuition
41 mechanism
42 mechanism design
43 movies
44 new information aggregation mechanism designs
45 office amounts
46 office revenues
47 pari-mutuel mechanism
48 principles
49 probability distribution
50 prophecy
51 revenue
52 second mechanism
53 small films
54 test
55 weekend box office revenues
56 schema:name Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses
57 schema:pagination 25-54
58 schema:productId Ne1415e9ee1594c4aabf33f3119120f9d
59 Nff45f7a2a5d3410ebce7d1513c32f046
60 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083866721
61 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1
62 schema:sdDatePublished 2021-12-01T19:38
63 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
64 schema:sdPublisher Nae5216bbceee4627ad7983fe8c639476
65 schema:url https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1
66 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
67 sgo:sdDataset articles
68 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
69 N0a9d81f1508b457880ac34f4806477d4 rdf:first sg:person.013550144421.47
70 rdf:rest Nb5639f8125854cad92dcdf5084b72f7d
71 N6129ddf2cd0745638f5a88bb57c7b9fd schema:volumeNumber 65
72 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
73 N63045a4fcedb468989235521546e068c rdf:first sg:person.012021517756.42
74 rdf:rest Ndea2645c1ad243e9a2c35df87d45b11f
75 Na470f189babd49c695b5ac46d3ed8dd2 schema:issueNumber 1
76 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
77 Nae5216bbceee4627ad7983fe8c639476 schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
78 rdf:type schema:Organization
79 Nb5639f8125854cad92dcdf5084b72f7d rdf:first sg:person.015156246113.99
80 rdf:rest rdf:nil
81 Ndea2645c1ad243e9a2c35df87d45b11f rdf:first sg:person.010740562413.08
82 rdf:rest N0a9d81f1508b457880ac34f4806477d4
83 Ne1415e9ee1594c4aabf33f3119120f9d schema:name dimensions_id
84 schema:value pub.1083866721
85 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
86 Nff45f7a2a5d3410ebce7d1513c32f046 schema:name doi
87 schema:value 10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1
88 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
89 anzsrc-for:14 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
90 schema:name Economics
91 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
92 anzsrc-for:1401 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
93 schema:name Economic Theory
94 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
95 anzsrc-for:1402 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
96 schema:name Applied Economics
97 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
98 anzsrc-for:1403 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
99 schema:name Econometrics
100 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
101 sg:grant.3579204 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1
102 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
103 sg:journal.1136838 schema:issn 0938-2259
104 1432-0479
105 schema:name Economic Theory
106 schema:publisher Springer Nature
107 rdf:type schema:Periodical
108 sg:person.010740562413.08 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.20861.3d
109 schema:familyName Gillen
110 schema:givenName Benjamin
111 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.010740562413.08
112 rdf:type schema:Person
113 sg:person.012021517756.42 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.466485.d
114 schema:familyName Court
115 schema:givenName David
116 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012021517756.42
117 rdf:type schema:Person
118 sg:person.013550144421.47 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.1004.5
119 schema:familyName McKenzie
120 schema:givenName Jordi
121 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.013550144421.47
122 rdf:type schema:Person
123 sg:person.015156246113.99 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.20861.3d
124 schema:familyName Plott
125 schema:givenName Charles R.
126 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015156246113.99
127 rdf:type schema:Person
128 sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-002-0306-7 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007681004
129 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-002-0306-7
130 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
131 sg:pub.10.1007/s00199-015-0870-2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022171339
132 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-015-0870-2
133 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
134 grid-institutes:grid.1004.5 schema:alternateName Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
135 schema:name Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
136 rdf:type schema:Organization
137 grid-institutes:grid.20861.3d schema:alternateName Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA
138 schema:name Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA
139 rdf:type schema:Organization
140 grid-institutes:grid.466485.d schema:alternateName AFTRS, Moore Park, NSW, Australia
141 schema:name AFTRS, Moore Park, NSW, Australia
142 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...