Prediction of mortality and macrovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: validation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model in the Casale Monferrato ... View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2013-08

AUTHORS

E. Pagano, A. Gray, R. Rosato, G. Gruden, P. Cavallo Perin, F. Merletti, G. Bruno

ABSTRACT

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model can be used to estimate the lifetime occurrence of major diabetes-related complications in order to calculate health economic outcomes. The aim of the study was to assess the performance of the model by comparing the predicted and observed mortality and the incidence of macrovascular complications in an Italian population-based cohort with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used data from the Casale Monferrato Survey, a cohort enrolled in 1988 and surveyed in 1991 (n = 1,967) to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. In 2000, a new survey included all the members of the original cohort who were still alive (n = 860), and in addition all individuals identified with a new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes since 1993 (n = 2,389). We compared the mortality predicted by the model for the 1991 survey over the subsequent 17-year period with the observed risk. The following outcomes were analysed in the 2000 survey: myocardial infarction (MI), other ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) and amputation. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, the predictions from the model at 5 and 10 years (23% and 47%, respectively) were identical to the observed risks. At 15 years, the risk of death was slightly overestimated (an estimate of 67% vs 64% observed, 95% CI 61%, 66%). The performance of the model was best for patients with a recent history of disease (duration <6 years). Among the complications, the predicted cumulative incidences of MI and CHF were very close to those observed. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: External validation is essential to assess the accuracy of simulation models. The UKPDS Outcomes Model satisfactorily predicted a set of actual incidences of mortality and complications in an Italian diabetes cohort up to a duration of approximately 12 years. The longer term performance of such models should be carefully evaluated. More... »

PAGES

1726-1734

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016842230

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23680916


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1117", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Public Health and Health Services", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/11", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Medical and Health Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Aged", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Cardiovascular Diseases", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Diabetes Complications", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Female", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Humans", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Italy", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Male", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "inDefinedTermSet": "https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/", 
        "name": "Middle Aged", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Turin", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4", 
          "name": [
            "Unit of Cancer Epidemiology and CPO Piemonte, Azienda Ospedaliera Citt\u00e0 della Salute e della Scienza and University of Turin, Via Santena 7, 10126, Turin, Italy"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Pagano", 
        "givenName": "E.", 
        "id": "sg:person.0711014373.34", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0711014373.34"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Oxford", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4991.5", 
          "name": [
            "Health Economics Research Centre, Department of Public Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Gray", 
        "givenName": "A.", 
        "id": "sg:person.01307325071.02", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01307325071.02"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Turin", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Rosato", 
        "givenName": "R.", 
        "id": "sg:person.0653600740.00", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0653600740.00"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Turin", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Gruden", 
        "givenName": "G.", 
        "id": "sg:person.0615047361.40", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0615047361.40"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Turin", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Perin", 
        "givenName": "P. Cavallo", 
        "id": "sg:person.01170640003.74", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01170640003.74"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Turin", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4", 
          "name": [
            "Unit of Cancer Epidemiology and CPO Piemonte, Azienda Ospedaliera Citt\u00e0 della Salute e della Scienza and University of Turin, Via Santena 7, 10126, Turin, Italy"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Merletti", 
        "givenName": "F.", 
        "id": "sg:person.01076227130.29", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01076227130.29"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "University of Turin", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Bruno", 
        "givenName": "G.", 
        "id": "sg:person.0615641460.62", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0615641460.62"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003605836", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003605836", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003605836", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2337/dc07-9919", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1004782287"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-8227(00)00213-8", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007992456"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(06)67914-2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1011018264"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7258.412", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014422277"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2006.08.007", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015117309"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2010.10.011", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1017948491"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s001250051154", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020833498", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s001250051154"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s001250051154", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020833498", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s001250051154"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400195", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022043816", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400195"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400195", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022043816", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400195"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400195", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022043816", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400195"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400637", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1023534968", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400637"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400637", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1023534968", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400637"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400637", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1023534968", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400637"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2337/db08-0900", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1024460593"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(05)67528-9", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1029983783"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehn567", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032325663"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00399931", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032980074", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00399931"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00399931", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032980074", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00399931"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00399931", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032980074", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00399931"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1036304902", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1036304902", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.27.9.2262", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1041789541"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b3513", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048982250"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0895-4356(99)00002-5", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1051303860"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2011.04.007", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1052351078"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b375", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1062803195"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b375", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1062803195"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b605", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1062804454"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b605", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1062804454"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.17.6.548", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1070746367"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.19.1.43", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1070746868"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1078635326", 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "2013-08", 
    "datePublishedReg": "2013-08-01", 
    "description": "AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model can be used to estimate the lifetime occurrence of major diabetes-related complications in order to calculate health economic outcomes. The aim of the study was to assess the performance of the model by comparing the predicted and observed mortality and the incidence of macrovascular complications in an Italian population-based cohort with type 2 diabetes.\nMETHODS: We used data from the Casale Monferrato Survey, a cohort enrolled in 1988 and surveyed in 1991 (n\u2009=\u20091,967) to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. In 2000, a new survey included all the members of the original cohort who were still alive (n\u2009=\u2009860), and in addition all individuals identified with a new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes since 1993 (n\u2009=\u20092,389). We compared the mortality predicted by the model for the 1991 survey over the subsequent 17-year period with the observed risk. The following outcomes were analysed in the 2000 survey: myocardial infarction (MI), other ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) and amputation.\nRESULTS: For all-cause mortality, the predictions from the model at 5 and 10 years (23% and 47%, respectively) were identical to the observed risks. At 15 years, the risk of death was slightly overestimated (an estimate of 67% vs 64% observed, 95% CI 61%, 66%). The performance of the model was best for patients with a recent history of disease (duration <6 years). Among the complications, the predicted cumulative incidences of MI and CHF were very close to those observed.\nCONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: External validation is essential to assess the accuracy of simulation models. The UKPDS Outcomes Model satisfactorily predicted a set of actual incidences of mortality and complications in an Italian diabetes cohort up to a duration of approximately 12 years. The longer term performance of such models should be carefully evaluated.", 
    "genre": "research_article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x", 
    "inLanguage": [
      "en"
    ], 
    "isAccessibleForFree": true, 
    "isFundedItemOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:grant.2773877", 
        "type": "MonetaryGrant"
      }
    ], 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1001482", 
        "issn": [
          "0012-186X", 
          "1432-0428"
        ], 
        "name": "Diabetologia", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "8", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "56"
      }
    ], 
    "name": "Prediction of mortality and macrovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: validation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model in the Casale Monferrato Survey, Italy", 
    "pagination": "1726-1734", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "readcube_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "503f30d511ad9d397d07918683f0e36e6aa5d79ec08d4fefbe11ea79901298dd"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "pubmed_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "23680916"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "nlm_unique_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "0006777"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1016842230"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016842230"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2019-04-11T09:34", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000346_0000000346/records_99818_00000001.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs00125-013-2933-x"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

231 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      62 URIs      30 LITERALS      18 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x schema:about N02877bc736e84fa8a2c66744e2d51fc9
2 N1feb7db5c13048e0a79337a030774f2f
3 N3cb700c9015a4e5eac0db4e900ba4cff
4 N6ddf93219f784e3995f758605e5fcacb
5 N712e2a2adf1949849dd7f9fdb7e6db53
6 Nb3b000c2595741f0bade7446462ea1ee
7 Nbfc163b9761140abb8a33c94c3066f87
8 Ncd8036a50174417a8ce91e5f058c61cc
9 Ndf05033106e04e38bef2ab77d29a3efd
10 anzsrc-for:11
11 anzsrc-for:1117
12 schema:author N01382833b7664d5aa43a069e3ed206d4
13 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/bf00399931
14 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400195
15 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400637
16 sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z
17 sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3
18 sg:pub.10.1007/s001250051154
19 https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1078635326
20 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2010.10.011
21 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2006.08.007
22 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2011.04.007
23 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(05)67528-9
24 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(06)67914-2
25 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-8227(00)00213-8
26 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0895-4356(99)00002-5
27 https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehn567
28 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7258.412
29 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b3513
30 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b375
31 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b605
32 https://doi.org/10.2337/db08-0900
33 https://doi.org/10.2337/dc07-9919
34 https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.17.6.548
35 https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.19.1.43
36 https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.27.9.2262
37 schema:datePublished 2013-08
38 schema:datePublishedReg 2013-08-01
39 schema:description AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model can be used to estimate the lifetime occurrence of major diabetes-related complications in order to calculate health economic outcomes. The aim of the study was to assess the performance of the model by comparing the predicted and observed mortality and the incidence of macrovascular complications in an Italian population-based cohort with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used data from the Casale Monferrato Survey, a cohort enrolled in 1988 and surveyed in 1991 (n = 1,967) to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. In 2000, a new survey included all the members of the original cohort who were still alive (n = 860), and in addition all individuals identified with a new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes since 1993 (n = 2,389). We compared the mortality predicted by the model for the 1991 survey over the subsequent 17-year period with the observed risk. The following outcomes were analysed in the 2000 survey: myocardial infarction (MI), other ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) and amputation. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, the predictions from the model at 5 and 10 years (23% and 47%, respectively) were identical to the observed risks. At 15 years, the risk of death was slightly overestimated (an estimate of 67% vs 64% observed, 95% CI 61%, 66%). The performance of the model was best for patients with a recent history of disease (duration <6 years). Among the complications, the predicted cumulative incidences of MI and CHF were very close to those observed. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: External validation is essential to assess the accuracy of simulation models. The UKPDS Outcomes Model satisfactorily predicted a set of actual incidences of mortality and complications in an Italian diabetes cohort up to a duration of approximately 12 years. The longer term performance of such models should be carefully evaluated.
40 schema:genre research_article
41 schema:inLanguage en
42 schema:isAccessibleForFree true
43 schema:isPartOf N5d12fa78352d4126af8c79742e158c30
44 Na167fc6f4c164b4098e7e9551f03ce89
45 sg:journal.1001482
46 schema:name Prediction of mortality and macrovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: validation of the UKPDS Outcomes Model in the Casale Monferrato Survey, Italy
47 schema:pagination 1726-1734
48 schema:productId N0f07115e2aec4fadacfd33e5567745de
49 N119451ad224c40c08357f0648457a7b9
50 N5893c957617c4a90873a7e8fcaa103f1
51 Na597c6ad1d8b4d419e5d79dac8a43dda
52 Nbd69c39c584340b1af3bb235df298839
53 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016842230
54 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x
55 schema:sdDatePublished 2019-04-11T09:34
56 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
57 schema:sdPublisher N043279353e204dd2978c984b25c20d15
58 schema:url https://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs00125-013-2933-x
59 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
60 sgo:sdDataset articles
61 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
62 N01382833b7664d5aa43a069e3ed206d4 rdf:first sg:person.0711014373.34
63 rdf:rest Naae84b6349184d59ac360b4317c087a9
64 N02877bc736e84fa8a2c66744e2d51fc9 schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
65 schema:name Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
66 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
67 N043279353e204dd2978c984b25c20d15 schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
68 rdf:type schema:Organization
69 N0f07115e2aec4fadacfd33e5567745de schema:name nlm_unique_id
70 schema:value 0006777
71 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
72 N119451ad224c40c08357f0648457a7b9 schema:name pubmed_id
73 schema:value 23680916
74 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
75 N1feb7db5c13048e0a79337a030774f2f schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
76 schema:name Middle Aged
77 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
78 N3cb700c9015a4e5eac0db4e900ba4cff schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
79 schema:name Humans
80 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
81 N3dfe2badd7ef4c73afda84a461fa71bd rdf:first sg:person.0615047361.40
82 rdf:rest N5a9500f9a3d949038c3cfebb3aed2354
83 N4e4b073f317649c685830461e181b5a4 rdf:first sg:person.0653600740.00
84 rdf:rest N3dfe2badd7ef4c73afda84a461fa71bd
85 N5893c957617c4a90873a7e8fcaa103f1 schema:name readcube_id
86 schema:value 503f30d511ad9d397d07918683f0e36e6aa5d79ec08d4fefbe11ea79901298dd
87 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
88 N5a9500f9a3d949038c3cfebb3aed2354 rdf:first sg:person.01170640003.74
89 rdf:rest N9eed3aa5201b40f1a32adcabe948b99d
90 N5d12fa78352d4126af8c79742e158c30 schema:issueNumber 8
91 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
92 N6ddf93219f784e3995f758605e5fcacb schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
93 schema:name Female
94 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
95 N712e2a2adf1949849dd7f9fdb7e6db53 schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
96 schema:name Male
97 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
98 N86bd480cc3ba4c27b8c2a0a22d678cfe rdf:first sg:person.0615641460.62
99 rdf:rest rdf:nil
100 N9eed3aa5201b40f1a32adcabe948b99d rdf:first sg:person.01076227130.29
101 rdf:rest N86bd480cc3ba4c27b8c2a0a22d678cfe
102 Na167fc6f4c164b4098e7e9551f03ce89 schema:volumeNumber 56
103 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
104 Na597c6ad1d8b4d419e5d79dac8a43dda schema:name dimensions_id
105 schema:value pub.1016842230
106 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
107 Naae84b6349184d59ac360b4317c087a9 rdf:first sg:person.01307325071.02
108 rdf:rest N4e4b073f317649c685830461e181b5a4
109 Nb3b000c2595741f0bade7446462ea1ee schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
110 schema:name Diabetes Complications
111 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
112 Nbd69c39c584340b1af3bb235df298839 schema:name doi
113 schema:value 10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x
114 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
115 Nbfc163b9761140abb8a33c94c3066f87 schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
116 schema:name Cardiovascular Diseases
117 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
118 Ncd8036a50174417a8ce91e5f058c61cc schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
119 schema:name Aged
120 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
121 Ndf05033106e04e38bef2ab77d29a3efd schema:inDefinedTermSet https://www.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/
122 schema:name Italy
123 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
124 anzsrc-for:11 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
125 schema:name Medical and Health Sciences
126 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
127 anzsrc-for:1117 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
128 schema:name Public Health and Health Services
129 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
130 sg:grant.2773877 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-013-2933-x
131 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
132 sg:journal.1001482 schema:issn 0012-186X
133 1432-0428
134 schema:name Diabetologia
135 rdf:type schema:Periodical
136 sg:person.01076227130.29 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4
137 schema:familyName Merletti
138 schema:givenName F.
139 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01076227130.29
140 rdf:type schema:Person
141 sg:person.01170640003.74 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4
142 schema:familyName Perin
143 schema:givenName P. Cavallo
144 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01170640003.74
145 rdf:type schema:Person
146 sg:person.01307325071.02 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4991.5
147 schema:familyName Gray
148 schema:givenName A.
149 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01307325071.02
150 rdf:type schema:Person
151 sg:person.0615047361.40 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4
152 schema:familyName Gruden
153 schema:givenName G.
154 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0615047361.40
155 rdf:type schema:Person
156 sg:person.0615641460.62 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4
157 schema:familyName Bruno
158 schema:givenName G.
159 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0615641460.62
160 rdf:type schema:Person
161 sg:person.0653600740.00 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4
162 schema:familyName Rosato
163 schema:givenName R.
164 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0653600740.00
165 rdf:type schema:Person
166 sg:person.0711014373.34 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4
167 schema:familyName Pagano
168 schema:givenName E.
169 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0711014373.34
170 rdf:type schema:Person
171 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00399931 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032980074
172 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00399931
173 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
174 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400195 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022043816
175 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400195
176 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
177 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00400637 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1023534968
178 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00400637
179 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
180 sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1036304902
181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-004-1527-z
182 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
183 sg:pub.10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003605836
184 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-005-1717-3
185 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
186 sg:pub.10.1007/s001250051154 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020833498
187 https://doi.org/10.1007/s001250051154
188 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
189 https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1078635326 schema:CreativeWork
190 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2010.10.011 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1017948491
191 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
192 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2006.08.007 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015117309
193 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
194 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2011.04.007 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1052351078
195 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
196 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(05)67528-9 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1029983783
197 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
198 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(06)67914-2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1011018264
199 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
200 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-8227(00)00213-8 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007992456
201 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
202 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0895-4356(99)00002-5 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1051303860
203 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
204 https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehn567 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032325663
205 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
206 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7258.412 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014422277
207 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
208 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b3513 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048982250
209 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
210 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b375 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1062803195
211 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
212 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b605 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1062804454
213 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
214 https://doi.org/10.2337/db08-0900 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1024460593
215 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
216 https://doi.org/10.2337/dc07-9919 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1004782287
217 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
218 https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.17.6.548 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1070746367
219 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
220 https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.19.1.43 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1070746868
221 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
222 https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.27.9.2262 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1041789541
223 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
224 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4991.5 schema:alternateName University of Oxford
225 schema:name Health Economics Research Centre, Department of Public Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
226 rdf:type schema:Organization
227 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7605.4 schema:alternateName University of Turin
228 schema:name Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
229 Department of Psychology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
230 Unit of Cancer Epidemiology and CPO Piemonte, Azienda Ospedaliera Città della Salute e della Scienza and University of Turin, Via Santena 7, 10126, Turin, Italy
231 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...