Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution
Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.
201-212
1988-09
en
https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
research_article
false
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF01550842
2019-04-11T13:29
1988-09-01
articles
Arnell
N. W.
0931-1955
1435-151X
Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics
Natural Environment Research Council
Institute of Hydrology, 0X10 8BB, Wallingford, Oxon, UK
a3815cb0dbe0bd34400e2b68b77d0ecf7c16983667720ca749ba3dc195fb34de
readcube_id
Mathematical Sciences
3
dimensions_id
pub.1034324010
2
Statistics
doi
10.1007/bf01550842
Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project