Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

1993-12

AUTHORS

P. H. Whetton, A. M. Fowler, M. R. Haylock, A. B. Pittock

ABSTRACT

Potential impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall events and flooding in the Australian region are explored using the results of a general circulation model (GCM) run in an equilibrium enhanced greenhouse experiment. In the doubled CO2 simulation, the model simulates an increase in the frequency of high-rainfall events and a decrease in the frequency of low-rainfall events. This result applies over most of Australia, is statistically more significant than simulated changes in total rainfall, and is supported by theoretical considerations. We show that this result implies decreased return periods for heavy rainfall events. The further implication is that flooding could increase, although we discuss here the many difficulties associated with assessing in quantitative terms the significance of the modelling results for the real world.The second part of the paper assesses the implications of climate change for drought occurrence in Australia. This is undertaken using an off-line soil water balance model driven by observed time series of rainfall and potential evaporation to determine the sensitivity of the soil water regime to changes in rainfall and temperature, and hence potential evaporation. Potential impacts are assessed at nine sites, representing a range of climate regimes and possible climate futures, by linking this sensitivity analysis with scenarios of regional climate change, derived from analysis of enhanced greenhouse experiment results from five GCMs. Results indicate that significant drying may be limited to the south of Australia. However, because the direction of change in terms of the soil water regime is uncertain at all sites and for all seasons, there is no basis for statements about how drought potential may change. More... »

PAGES

289-317

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/bf01098378

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01098378

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007993517


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Earth Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0406", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/None", 
          "name": [
            "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Whetton", 
        "givenName": "P. H.", 
        "id": "sg:person.012404712005.92", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012404712005.92"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/None", 
          "name": [
            "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Fowler", 
        "givenName": "A. M.", 
        "id": "sg:person.016616576577.03", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016616576577.03"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/None", 
          "name": [
            "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Haylock", 
        "givenName": "M. R.", 
        "id": "sg:person.07514122053.48", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.07514122053.48"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/None", 
          "name": [
            "Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Pittock", 
        "givenName": "A. B.", 
        "id": "sg:person.012142701672.33", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012142701672.33"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00140555", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050205673", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00140555"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/978-94-009-6954-4_11", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008169261", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-6954-4_11"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00209165", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002293392", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00209165"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/357293a0", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027555370", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1038/357293a0"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00140173", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038751416", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00140173"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "1993-12", 
    "datePublishedReg": "1993-12-01", 
    "description": "Potential impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall events and flooding in the Australian region are explored using the results of a general circulation model (GCM) run in an equilibrium enhanced greenhouse experiment. In the doubled CO2 simulation, the model simulates an increase in the frequency of high-rainfall events and a decrease in the frequency of low-rainfall events. This result applies over most of Australia, is statistically more significant than simulated changes in total rainfall, and is supported by theoretical considerations. We show that this result implies decreased return periods for heavy rainfall events. The further implication is that flooding could increase, although we discuss here the many difficulties associated with assessing in quantitative terms the significance of the modelling results for the real world.The second part of the paper assesses the implications of climate change for drought occurrence in Australia. This is undertaken using an off-line soil water balance model driven by observed time series of rainfall and potential evaporation to determine the sensitivity of the soil water regime to changes in rainfall and temperature, and hence potential evaporation. Potential impacts are assessed at nine sites, representing a range of climate regimes and possible climate futures, by linking this sensitivity analysis with scenarios of regional climate change, derived from analysis of enhanced greenhouse experiment results from five GCMs. Results indicate that significant drying may be limited to the south of Australia. However, because the direction of change in terms of the soil water regime is uncertain at all sites and for all seasons, there is no basis for statements about how drought potential may change.", 
    "genre": "article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf01098378", 
    "isAccessibleForFree": false, 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1028211", 
        "issn": [
          "0165-0009", 
          "1573-1480"
        ], 
        "name": "Climatic Change", 
        "publisher": "Springer Nature", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "3-4", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "25"
      }
    ], 
    "keywords": [
      "general circulation model", 
      "heavy rainfall events", 
      "climate change", 
      "rainfall events", 
      "soil water regime", 
      "potential evaporation", 
      "soil water balance model", 
      "low rainfall events", 
      "regional climate change", 
      "south of Australia", 
      "possible climate futures", 
      "high rainfall events", 
      "water balance model", 
      "water regimes", 
      "greenhouse experiment", 
      "CO2 simulations", 
      "circulation model", 
      "drought occurrence", 
      "significant drying", 
      "total rainfall", 
      "drought potential", 
      "return period", 
      "climate regime", 
      "observed time series", 
      "Australian region", 
      "potential impact", 
      "climate futures", 
      "balance model", 
      "greenhouse effect", 
      "modelling results", 
      "rainfall", 
      "time series", 
      "direction of change", 
      "flooding", 
      "Australia", 
      "evaporation", 
      "events", 
      "regime", 
      "floods", 
      "south", 
      "drought", 
      "season", 
      "changes", 
      "further implications", 
      "sites", 
      "sensitivity analysis", 
      "impact", 
      "quantitative terms", 
      "implications", 
      "occurrence", 
      "region", 
      "model", 
      "period", 
      "theoretical considerations", 
      "scenarios", 
      "part", 
      "temperature", 
      "drying", 
      "simulations", 
      "equilibrium", 
      "series", 
      "results", 
      "direction", 
      "range", 
      "analysis", 
      "future", 
      "experiments", 
      "world", 
      "frequency", 
      "decrease", 
      "potential", 
      "increase", 
      "terms", 
      "significance", 
      "basis", 
      "effect", 
      "second part", 
      "consideration", 
      "sensitivity", 
      "difficulties", 
      "paper", 
      "real world", 
      "statements"
    ], 
    "name": "Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia", 
    "pagination": "289-317", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1007993517"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1007/bf01098378"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01098378", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007993517"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2022-09-02T15:46", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-springernature-scigraph/baseset/20220902/entities/gbq_results/article/article_236.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01098378"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/bf01098378'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/bf01098378'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/bf01098378'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/bf01098378'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

181 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      113 URIs      100 LITERALS      6 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1007/bf01098378 schema:about anzsrc-for:04
2 anzsrc-for:0406
3 schema:author N60438e7c395c4aa9876a1d01dac0d62e
4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/978-94-009-6954-4_11
5 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00140173
6 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00140555
7 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00209165
8 sg:pub.10.1038/357293a0
9 schema:datePublished 1993-12
10 schema:datePublishedReg 1993-12-01
11 schema:description Potential impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall events and flooding in the Australian region are explored using the results of a general circulation model (GCM) run in an equilibrium enhanced greenhouse experiment. In the doubled CO2 simulation, the model simulates an increase in the frequency of high-rainfall events and a decrease in the frequency of low-rainfall events. This result applies over most of Australia, is statistically more significant than simulated changes in total rainfall, and is supported by theoretical considerations. We show that this result implies decreased return periods for heavy rainfall events. The further implication is that flooding could increase, although we discuss here the many difficulties associated with assessing in quantitative terms the significance of the modelling results for the real world.The second part of the paper assesses the implications of climate change for drought occurrence in Australia. This is undertaken using an off-line soil water balance model driven by observed time series of rainfall and potential evaporation to determine the sensitivity of the soil water regime to changes in rainfall and temperature, and hence potential evaporation. Potential impacts are assessed at nine sites, representing a range of climate regimes and possible climate futures, by linking this sensitivity analysis with scenarios of regional climate change, derived from analysis of enhanced greenhouse experiment results from five GCMs. Results indicate that significant drying may be limited to the south of Australia. However, because the direction of change in terms of the soil water regime is uncertain at all sites and for all seasons, there is no basis for statements about how drought potential may change.
12 schema:genre article
13 schema:isAccessibleForFree false
14 schema:isPartOf N04e6fea19afc46c7a0555b340aabe235
15 N0bb9a9d7b2084e11b98dd1f3bc624f99
16 sg:journal.1028211
17 schema:keywords Australia
18 Australian region
19 CO2 simulations
20 analysis
21 balance model
22 basis
23 changes
24 circulation model
25 climate change
26 climate futures
27 climate regime
28 consideration
29 decrease
30 difficulties
31 direction
32 direction of change
33 drought
34 drought occurrence
35 drought potential
36 drying
37 effect
38 equilibrium
39 evaporation
40 events
41 experiments
42 flooding
43 floods
44 frequency
45 further implications
46 future
47 general circulation model
48 greenhouse effect
49 greenhouse experiment
50 heavy rainfall events
51 high rainfall events
52 impact
53 implications
54 increase
55 low rainfall events
56 model
57 modelling results
58 observed time series
59 occurrence
60 paper
61 part
62 period
63 possible climate futures
64 potential
65 potential evaporation
66 potential impact
67 quantitative terms
68 rainfall
69 rainfall events
70 range
71 real world
72 regime
73 region
74 regional climate change
75 results
76 return period
77 scenarios
78 season
79 second part
80 sensitivity
81 sensitivity analysis
82 series
83 significance
84 significant drying
85 simulations
86 sites
87 soil water balance model
88 soil water regime
89 south
90 south of Australia
91 statements
92 temperature
93 terms
94 theoretical considerations
95 time series
96 total rainfall
97 water balance model
98 water regimes
99 world
100 schema:name Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia
101 schema:pagination 289-317
102 schema:productId N3777aa3951d94e8caea8cd75d9ea14d6
103 Ne1436f7dda4f4017835cc8293b8792b8
104 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007993517
105 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01098378
106 schema:sdDatePublished 2022-09-02T15:46
107 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
108 schema:sdPublisher Nca4ce3aaacf74b4a8bd6fd9bb82af356
109 schema:url https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01098378
110 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
111 sgo:sdDataset articles
112 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
113 N04e6fea19afc46c7a0555b340aabe235 schema:volumeNumber 25
114 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
115 N0bb9a9d7b2084e11b98dd1f3bc624f99 schema:issueNumber 3-4
116 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
117 N3777aa3951d94e8caea8cd75d9ea14d6 schema:name dimensions_id
118 schema:value pub.1007993517
119 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
120 N60438e7c395c4aa9876a1d01dac0d62e rdf:first sg:person.012404712005.92
121 rdf:rest Nea58d2c9b5ba4d11a7d1f60d4c73d457
122 N6dc7e7cb865948f0aa18098c1805ecb6 rdf:first sg:person.07514122053.48
123 rdf:rest Nfb00b793db34430ea1cdcd23e92ad810
124 Nca4ce3aaacf74b4a8bd6fd9bb82af356 schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
125 rdf:type schema:Organization
126 Ne1436f7dda4f4017835cc8293b8792b8 schema:name doi
127 schema:value 10.1007/bf01098378
128 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
129 Nea58d2c9b5ba4d11a7d1f60d4c73d457 rdf:first sg:person.016616576577.03
130 rdf:rest N6dc7e7cb865948f0aa18098c1805ecb6
131 Nfb00b793db34430ea1cdcd23e92ad810 rdf:first sg:person.012142701672.33
132 rdf:rest rdf:nil
133 anzsrc-for:04 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
134 schema:name Earth Sciences
135 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
136 anzsrc-for:0406 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
137 schema:name Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
138 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
139 sg:journal.1028211 schema:issn 0165-0009
140 1573-1480
141 schema:name Climatic Change
142 schema:publisher Springer Nature
143 rdf:type schema:Periodical
144 sg:person.012142701672.33 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:None
145 schema:familyName Pittock
146 schema:givenName A. B.
147 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012142701672.33
148 rdf:type schema:Person
149 sg:person.012404712005.92 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:None
150 schema:familyName Whetton
151 schema:givenName P. H.
152 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012404712005.92
153 rdf:type schema:Person
154 sg:person.016616576577.03 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:None
155 schema:familyName Fowler
156 schema:givenName A. M.
157 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016616576577.03
158 rdf:type schema:Person
159 sg:person.07514122053.48 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:None
160 schema:familyName Haylock
161 schema:givenName M. R.
162 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.07514122053.48
163 rdf:type schema:Person
164 sg:pub.10.1007/978-94-009-6954-4_11 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008169261
165 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-6954-4_11
166 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
167 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00140173 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038751416
168 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00140173
169 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
170 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00140555 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050205673
171 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00140555
172 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
173 sg:pub.10.1007/bf00209165 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002293392
174 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00209165
175 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
176 sg:pub.10.1038/357293a0 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027555370
177 https://doi.org/10.1038/357293a0
178 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
179 grid-institutes:None schema:alternateName Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia
180 schema:name Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, P.M.B. No. 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia
181 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...