Project Risk Considering Samplng Uncertainties and a Finite Project Operation Period View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:Chapter      Open Access: True


Chapter Info

DATE

1987

AUTHORS

Upmanu Lall

ABSTRACT

The risk or probability of failure associated with a flood control project is a random variable, even if perfect information, rather than sample estimates of flood frequency are used for the design process. This paper presents procedures for the estimation of the expected value of this risk and its distribution where die flood control project has a finite operation period. Of interest are both the variability of the flood process during project operation and uncertainties inherent in the flood frequency estimation process. The traditional design procedure for flood control projects considers a finite project operation period, as far as the amortization of economic values is concerned. No analysis on the likely exceedance of the design magnitude during an actual run of events in a finite duration, is however considered. As far as the likelihoods of project failure are concerned, the project operation period is thus implicitly considered to be infinite. Design choices are likely to be quite different where the likelihood of project failure during a specified period (over a certain random set of future events) is considered. Where a finite operation period is considered and flood frequency relationships are estimated from annual maximum flow records, the probability of one or more exceedances of the design level is a function of the sample size for estimation and the length of the project operation period. General procedures in a Bayesian framework for the estimation of this probability are presented. Possible design implications are discussed. More... »

PAGES

305-318

Book

TITLE

Application of Frequency and Risk in Water Resources

ISBN

978-94-010-8254-9
978-94-009-3955-4

Author Affiliations

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/978-94-009-3955-4_23

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3955-4_23

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1028577681


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