Prediction of Volcanic Hazards on the Basis of the Study of Dynamics of Volcanic Activity, Kamchatka View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:Chapter     


Chapter Info

DATE

1989

AUTHORS

I. V. Melekestsev , O. A. Braitseva , V. V. Ponomareva

ABSTRACT

The study of the history of volcanic activity over a long period of time (several 1000 years as a minimum), and the trends in the dynamics of eruptive activity and production rate, as well as the determination of the characteristic features of the present period of the life of a volcano are of decisive significance for long-term prediction of volcanic hazards. Based on these data, conclusions may be drawn on the number, frequency, type and energy of eruptions which may occur in the future. Studies of the dynamics of volcanic activity in Kamchatka, using tephrochronological and geological-geomorphological methods and 14C dating, made it possible to define groups of volcanoes regarded as belonging to the same stage of development (stage I: high and moderate levels of activity and growth of the edifice; stage II: a low level of activity and the onset of the destruction of the edifice), and to define phases of the cycle of activity, represented by the upsurge, repose or relative waning of activity. Most active volcanoes belong to stage I. The reconstruction of the cyclic regime of their activity permitted us to establish that Kliuchevskoi, Bezymianny, Karymsky and Maly Semyachik are in the period of recent cycle activity, and Avachinsky, Kizimen, Krasheninnikov, Kikhpinych and Ksudach are in the repose period of the cycle. Knowledge of the duration of such periods during previous cycles, and of the production rate of volcanoes at different stages, made it possible to determine the approximate time and parameters of future eruptions. Kliuchevskoi and Karymsky can be expected to erupt as in the present regime for a period lasting hundreds of years, Bezymianny will erupt in the style of the 1960–1980s for a period of 100 or 200 years, and a violent eruption from Maly Semyachik will probably occur in the next 50 or 100 years. The volume of erupted products of future effusive-explosive eruptions of these volcanoes will be 107–108 m3. The repose period of Avachinsky, Krasheninnikov and Kikhpinych will last for several 100 years. The most hazardous catastrophic eruption is expected to be that of Kizimen volcano, which may occur in the next 50–100 years, and will resemble the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980. For volcanoes which are regarded as belonging to stage II, both relatively minor explosive and phreatic eruptions (Mutnovsky volcano) and large, even catastrophic eruptions with a volume of erupted products of 108–109 m3 (Khodutka, Koryaksky, Kronotsky, etc.) are possible. More... »

PAGES

10-35

References to SciGraph publications

Book

TITLE

Volcanic Hazards

ISBN

978-3-642-73761-9
978-3-642-73759-6

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/978-3-642-73759-6_2

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-73759-6_2

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1006231881


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