Climate Change and Land Use: Global and Regional Analyses View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:Chapter     


Chapter Info

DATE

1998

AUTHORS

M. L. Parry , C. Rosenzweig , J. E. Hossell , P. Jones , T. Rehmam , R. B. Tranter , J. S. Marsh , J. C. Taylor

ABSTRACT

The potential effects of climate change on agricultural land use in any given region are likely to stem as much from the response of the world food system to global climate change as to specific changes in climate in that region. To achieve this level of analysis requires evaluation of inputs at the regional level but within a global price environment. This, in turn, requires the development of a hierarchy of land use/climate models. In this paper we employ results of a global analysis of the sensitivity of world food prices to climate change, using these as inputs to a regional land use allocation model, in order to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on regional patterns of land use. There are two components to the global estimation: Firstly, the estimation of potential changes in national grain crop yields using crop models and a decision support system. Secondly the estimation of world food trade responses. The yield changes were used as inputs into a world food trade model, the Basic Linked System (Bls). Outputs from simulations by the Bls provided information on global food production potential, and food prices. The second part of the paper illustrates how an analysis of these two global elements (crop yields and food prices) can be made in order to evaluate their integrated effect in land use. A case study is used to illustrate the process; in this instance, for England and Wales using a Land Use Allocation Model and manipulating it in the context of a) global price changes due to climate and b) changes in yield potential in England and Wales due to climate. The combination of price and yield potential is used to calculate the highest value use for each of 250 000 1-km2cells of land in England and Wales for a future economic environment in 2060 (without climate change) and then for that same environment with climate change. The difference provides an estimated effect of climate change. More... »

PAGES

251-272

References to SciGraph publications

Book

TITLE

Earth System Analysis

ISBN

978-3-642-52356-4
978-3-642-52354-0

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/978-3-642-52354-0_8

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-52354-0_8

DIMENSIONS

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