Reconciling Climate Model/Data Discrepancies: The Case of the ‘Trees That Didn’t Bark’ View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:Chapter     


Chapter Info

DATE

2018

AUTHORS

Michael E. Mann

ABSTRACT

Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)—the temperature with a doubling of CO2—usually are between 1.5 °C and 5 °C warming, with a mid-range/most likely value close to 3 °C. Notably, comparisons of simulations of temperature changes over the past millennium with paleoreconstructions of past temperatures tend to suggest an ECS value toward the lower end of the range closer to 2 °C, which deserves closer scrutiny. In this chapter, I review evidence that paleoreconstructions may selectively underestimate the cooling signal associated with large explosive volcanic eruptions of the past millennium, due to their reliance on tree-ring data from tree-line-proximal environments. Once large volcanic episodes are masked, these comparisons instead support a mid-range of ~3 °C of ECS. Regardless of the reason for the model/paleodata discrepancy, ECS estimates—I argue—should not rely on comparisons that include these episodes. More... »

PAGES

175-197

Book

TITLE

Climate Modelling

ISBN

978-3-319-65057-9
978-3-319-65058-6

Author Affiliations

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_7

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_7

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1101016589


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